Introduction

This piece demonstrates clearly that Ireland has the players required to qualify for major tournaments. Using the value of certain categories or levels of football as a proxy for quality, it can be seen that Ireland, contrary to the lazy consensus, is still exactly where it always has been in the European international football hierarchy, save for one  anomalous glorious campaign over 30 years ago – in or around the runners-up spot or the play-offs. The aim of this task was to do the following:

1. Compare the current Irish squad to the European Squads that played in the 2018 World Cup; and
2. Compare the current Irish squad to those making up Pot 2 of the Euro 2020 Qualifiers – i.e., our rivals in qualification.

To do this, I wanted to demonstrate the futility of the argument which states that because we have no-one in the Top 4 of the Premier League, or that no Irish players get within an asses roar of a league title or a European Cup like they may have done in the past, that we are in fact a significantly worse team now than back then; that we are a significantly worse team than our rivals for qualification; and that any achievement, even mere qualification, should be greeted with surprise and relentless gratitude to the manager who miraculously dragged this supposed shower of journeymen to the promised land. We have good players. We do not have the best in the Premier League anymore, but we should still always expect to push close for qualification. That was my hypothesis at the outset, and the methodology can be summed up as follows:

Methodology

Step 1: After initial research on transfer markt relating to the value of club squads and leagues overall across Europe, the football world was divided into 13 categories in descending order of value as follows:

• European Elite – any club that has played in a Champions League final in any of the last 5 seasons (average value of these squads was given as €748m)
• Premiership Top 4 – any club that finished last season in the top 4 of the EPL, apart from those in the European Elite – this left Spurs and Man Utd (average value of these squads was given as €752m)
• Other Top League Top 4 – any club that finished in the top 4 of La Liga, the Bundesliga or Serie A, apart from those in the European Elite (€372m)
• Premier League Top 10 – any club in the top 10 of 2017/18 not already accounted for (€306m)
• Champions League Group Stage – any club that qualified automatically for the Champions League via their 2017/18 league finish not already accounted for (€204m)
• Premier League Bottom 10 – self-explanatory (€180m)
• Other Top League – any other clubs in La Liga, the Bundesliga or Serie A outside the European Elite or Champions League Group Stage (€135m)
• Ligue Un – any team in the top French division outside the European Elite or Champions League Group Stage (€84m)
• Championship – any club in the English Championship (€45m)
• 2nd Tier European League – any club in the Top Division in Russia, Portugal, Belgium, Ukraine, Turkey, Austria, Netherlands, Denmark, Greece and Switzerland (up to place 15 on the UEFA League Coefficient ranking) (€28m)
• 3rd Tier European League any club in the Top Division in Croatia, Czech, Cyprus, Serbia, Scotland, Belarus, Sweden, Norway, Kazakhstan, Poland, Azerbaijan, Israel, Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovenia (up to place 30) (€9m)
• Other European League (assumed €5m)
• Other (assumed €5m)

Step 2: The squads of each European nation who qualified for WC 2018 were analysed and each player placed in each relevant category, based on the club they were playing for when they went to Russia. In the case of the European Elite, this does mean that a player playing for Chelsea in 2018 was categorised as European Elite even though Chelsea last appeared at this stage in 2014. It’s a method, it can be argued over, but there has to be some leeway given on these matters and assumptions made.

Step 3: The Ireland squad from November 2018 was analysed in the same manner based on each player’s current club. The squad selected took account of those missing through injuries.

Step 4: The squads from all countries in Pot 2 of the Euro 2020 qualifiers were analysed in the same manner as Ireland with account taken of injuries and withdrawals etc. Neither Step 3 nor Step 4 can be 100% accurate and of course different squads could have been chosen, but a genuine attempt has been made to be as reasonable as possible and to pick the highest value players. Northern Ireland were added for the craic, just to show the difference on paper relative to the difference on grass in the Aviva the other week.

Step 5: Multiply the number of players from each squad in each category by the value of that category. This value was calculated using transfer markt. This gave each national squad a total notional value, and the results are set out below:

RESULTS

Ireland vs. The European Qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup

In graphical format, the spread is clearer:

What this shows is that Ireland’s squad belongs at or close enough to the top table. Ahead of 3 nations that qualified for the World Cup from Europe and 12th overall in this grouping. There are some caveats here – Italy and Holland on any other day would more than likely push us down to 14. France caused a problem because their league is not quite elite – despite PSG – nor is it quite 2nd tier – because of PSG (and 1 or 2 others). As such, Ligue Un was dealt with completely separately. Russia seemed an anomaly, then you look at their squad and remember that a calamity was indeed forecast before the World Cup and their run to the Quarter Finals was quite a surprise.

Of interest is also the distribution of the players from each squad. The graphs below show a select few. The more you see on the left of the graph the better the squad:

Spain truly are the European Elite. A disaster at the World Cup for obvious reasons but you can really see how the last decade of unprecedented International and Continental Club success has panned out and how intrinsically linked their club fortunes and national team fortunes are.

Similarly, the semi-final place England achieved should not have been that surprising. Their players are the 2nd most highly-valued in this methodology, and while the old argument that English players are over-priced certainly does ring true, this analysis is based on ALL players in the Premier League regardless of nationality. Their 7 Elite players do include Jordan Henderson and Gary Cahill, but the former did play in the last European Cup Final and the latter has won one European Cup and two league titles.

As for ourselves:

Ireland’s graph is skewed somewhat more to the right you might say. 13 Championship players, 9 Premier and one based in Scotland – Goalkeeper Colin Doyle. The fact that if I had chosen Caoimhín Kelleher of Liverpool instead would have taken Ireland into 10th place ahead of Denmark and Serbia demonstrates just how close this ranking is and how arbitrary decisions can change things significantly. Fine margins and all that! And of course this is the case on the pitch as well. 0-0 away to Denmark, followed by a complete demolition in the home leg caused in part by an arbitrary managerial decision at half-time. And with Serbia, there was little between us as well over those two games. On the scoreboards at least.

Speaking of Danes:

Much more to the left than Ireland, but a lot more in the 2nd tier leagues, which are less valued than the English Championship. Age Hareide may have had a point, but again the gap is not huge.

Ireland Versus Pot 2 – Euro 2020

Can we qualify automatically for Euro 2020? Of course we can. Is it likely? Should we qualify? On paper, we do in fact have a good chance. The table for this comparison reads as follows:

Germany are way ahead obviously, but in there among the other 9 second seeds, Ireland come out higher than 3 of them. And as the graph below shows (Germany left out for visual reasons), we’re not that far behind Bosnia-Herzegovina (who we beat to get to Euro 2016 obviously) and the Czechs. In other words, we have nothing to really fear from Pot 2 apart from the Germans.

Ireland vs Northern Ireland

Stats and facts don’t lie. Maybe we imagined that match in Lansdowne. Clearly, Ireland have better players than Northern Ireland. 9 Premier League players versus 4 and a far greater reliance for Northern Ireland on the Championship and Scotland. Yet they outplayed us. In Dublin. Michael O’Neill got them to the Euros and out of their group, beating Ukraine along the way, all the while playing attractive football that gets the fans out of their seats. The gap isn’t huge but good management can close that gap. We need good management now to do exactly that so we can overcome those countries in Pot 2 to qualify automatically for Euro 2020. If only someone like Michael O’Neill who cut his managerial teeth in the League of Ireland, won a few titles and brought an Irish club into the Europa League group stages was available! At the time of publishing it looks like we’ll have to settle for the man who captained us to the Quarter Finals of one World Cup and captained us to the last 16 of another. Fair enough I suppose…

To conclude, the Irish squad of 2018 can hold its own against those it needs to hold its own against – those on the cusp of qualification. With the exception of Euro 88, we have never won a qualifying group. As such, being in or around 2nd place is how it has always been. Nostalgia for the medalled players of old, who may not get anywhere near today’s top 4 or European elite is misguided and ignorant. What we lack more than anything else, and have done since 2005, is a manager capable of galvanising the best elements of the Irish squad and getting the best out of their abilities. What is Robbie Brady capable of? Coleman? Hourihane? O’Dowda? And Jeff bloody Hendrick? With the organisation and the belief of a proper modern manager, what could they actually achieve? It may be scraping 2nd place again. Or falling to 3rd place again, just like O’Neill’s campaigns, but at least we’ll know they played to their potential and showed it. Or they may surprise us all, play above themselves like previous Irish squads did and beat the second seeds comfortably into the runners-up spot. We’ll find out in March. Thanks for reading. Please share on Twitter and Facebook.

Caveats

• Fundamentally this method assumes that financial value equals quality
• It assumes that every player in each category is equal
• There is a time lag in how I defined European Elite and the current or WC national squads
• PSG are defined as “Champions League Group Stage” qualifiers whereas their squad of individuals may be regarded as “European Elite”, certainly they cost elite money. This reflects the team’s poor record over the last 5 years
• Russia came out quite low scoring. They didn’t exactly tear up the Nations League but it’s hard to envisage Ireland being any better than them on a one-to-one basis. It remains to be seen

 

There’s a fine line between Nationalism, pride in your country, and the extremism, xenophobia and outright racism that has crept into mainstream, political discourse in the UK, parts of Europe, all over the US, and which threatened to drown a recent meaningless race for a symbolic office here in Ireland. James McClean is no shrinking violet. He is a decent footballer by any measure and one who may love his country just that little bit too much, but he remains a lightning rod for cavemen English nationalists every poxy November.

He has his faults and he overdoes things on an off the field for some people’s liking, including mine at times, but at this time of the year, his noble stance against the forced recognition of the poppy is admirable and is perhaps silently supported by many of his fellow professionals.

Nemanja Matic has certainly aligned himself to McClean’s stance in a non-silent manner. He removed the poppy from his jersey at the weekend because as a child he witnessed Her Majesty’s finest do their work as part of a NATO bombing campaign in former Yugoslavia. He said today:

“… for me it is only a reminder of an attack that I felt personally as a young, frightened 12-year-old boy living in Vrelo, as my country was devastated by the bombing of Serbia in 1999… Whilst I have done so previously, on reflection I now don’t feel it is right for me to wear the poppy on my shirt”.

On mature reflection, perhaps inspired in part by the Derryman.

Argentinians and those from some African and Middle Eastern nations must also have some reservations when donning something representing an historical and current foreign agitator. Surely Aguero and his fellow countrymen must have thought about the Falklands and the Belgrano at some point, or had it pointed out to them by someone, as they donned the symbol of the Army which carried out that action; one which many right-minded Brits regard as a somewhat controversial act of war. Maybe not. Maybe Geography; maybe the more recent stains on the Union Jack caused in Ireland and Serbia have not been expunged in the manner that historical colonialism, slavery and the Falklands have? And in the case of the Middle East, things are perhaps even more complex.

But one thing is for sure, there are an awful lot of footballers, pundits and media people across the board who don the poppy thoughtlessly or simply do not want to be seen to cause offence. They are unaware that the fields of Flanders from where the symbol came, and the many battlefields of World War I were not theatres for some noble fight against tyranny, as Europe was from 1939-45; they were theatres for colonial and imperial competition; and they were scenes of absolute and total butchery – the slaves and servants of the kings and emperors sent to their brutal deaths. Brave? Noble? It was an industrial slaughterhouse. Now let’s stand for a minute’s fucking silence 100 years on to remember them, surrounded by ads for gambling leeches in a stadium named after whatever foreign global corporation bid the highest for the rights.

But the Brits and the hyper-English are entitled to their myths and their symbolism. We have plenty of them ourselves. Ireland’s 20th Century is not without its shame; Irish Nationalism not without its butchers, from Ballyseedy to Omagh. Irish culture is not without its extremists, from the GAA bans to the dictators who ran the Catholic Church and via McQuaid and De Valera, the State, for so long. But in 2018, what are we forcing on anyone? We are emerging from a period of monoculture, and while you may hear the term “true Gael” every couple of summer Sundays, the oppressive old definition of Irishness is well and truly dead. The nation can unite and be brought to its feet by Protestant Hockey players in the same summer that it turned its back on the Pope. Elsewhere they are moving towards monoculture and what it means to be English, British, American etc etc. It’s deeply tragic in nations which have always, always, been the most diverse and multi-cultural.

And poppy fascism is the latest cri de couer for the true Anglo. The great irony is that those people should really be wearing swastikas to match their attitudes. The even greater irony is that some of them do.

In the current climate of English politics, it cannot be a coincidence that every November, this gets worse. As the UK further degenerates over the coming years into a certain type of England in London; a different one elsewhere; an irrelevant Wales; a restless, possibly independent Scotland; and christ knows what in Northern Ireland; this fractious kingdom will be defined more and more by this Faragian, Rees-Moggian approach to discourse. And people like McClean and Matic will be further and further denigrated. God help the working class blacks, Asians and other “foreigners” in those forgotten cities and towns, as a multi-cultural nation turns inwards into a septic isle; a poorer isle, looking for minorities to blame.

Where does it go from here? McClean has been warned by the FA over his use of the c-word and will face no further action. I have to commend the FA for this, as I had expected more (or less) from them. Stoke have yet to come back on the latest statements, but I presume they won’t go any further than the FA. As for Nemanja Matic, things could get interesting for him too. Will Poppygate finally be exposed as mere good old-fashioned anti-Irish xenophobia. Banter. A bit of crack (sic). Or will fans start to taunt Matic as well? What should McClean do now? He has been at his most vocal this week since this all started back in 2011. Gone are the days of hoping it will all go away with a brilliantly worded open letter like the one he wrote to Dave Whelan at Wigan. Nah, in post-Brexit Britain, logic, compassion, understanding and empathy have no place.

I still think they have a place in Ireland, despite the vile shart that was Peter Casey’s presidential campaign and post-election deluded, ignorant and egotistical witterings. McClean divides opinion on both sides of the Irish Sea. I don’t subscribe to the genre of Irishness that glorifies violence, or any narrow definitions of what one should believe about the Rising, the Civil War, the Troubles or anything else. No conflict on this island has been black and white; and in Irish football things have been multiple shades grey since day one – McClean’s former club being one of the great symbols of that greyness. It’s up to James what he does next. I like him. I hope he is ok. If he feels he has the inner strength to put up with the cavemen year in year out, I wish him the best. He is under no obligation to leave his job, or his adopted home. But when he does, he has an entire city in the north-west of Ireland which will welcome him back with open arms, and a majority on the island that fully respect his overall stance on the substantive issue under debate here.